Investors in the private credit market took out more than $7 billion from some of the biggest funds on the market. This could be the start of a big correction. The data make it plain that there are danger signs: the average total returns from five of the biggest private credit funds for individual investors were 11.39% in 2023, 8.76% in 2024, and 6.22% in the first nine months of 2025.
The private credit party is done. Big businesses are already experiencing significant pressure. For example, Blackstone’s $79 billion private credit fund got $2.1 billion in redemption requests in the last quarter of 2025 alone. Ares also saw a 5.6% drop in their strategic income fund. Blue Owl’s response to their technology-focused fund, which had redemption requests well over the usual 5% quarterly limitation, was probably the most telling. Instead of sticking to the limits, they lifted the cap to 17% and borrowed money to reimburse investors.
We’ll talk about the cracks that are starting to show in the private credit bubble, why evergreen funds aren’t as safe as they seem, and how systemic risk grows even when there isn’t any clear wrongdoing. We will also look at better investment options that many people miss while trying to get into private markets.
The issues with private credit are very evident
The shockwaves in private credit markets are getting stronger. There are more than just the headline redemptions that got people’s attention in late 2025. There are deeper structural flaws that point to real troubles instead of just market worries.
Billions of dollars in redemptions from big funds
The tide of redemption has been a lot stronger lately. People who own Business Development Companies (BDCs) and have more than EUR 0.95 billion in them asked to withdraw more than EUR 2.77 billion in the fourth quarter alone. This is a shocking 200% rise from the previous quarter. It’s important to note that these redemptions are not just for smaller, less established players. Funds run by big names in the business, including Apollo, Barings, BlackRock’s HPS Investment Partners, and Oaktree, have all seen more and more people asking to take their money out.
Additionally, non-traded BDC redemptions accounted for approximately 5% of net assets overall, a threshold that typically triggers most quarterly gates. This means that investors are taking out as much money as they can as soon as possible.
Returns have been declining for the past three years
It’s clear that performance is going down. In the first nine months of 2025, the total returns from five large private-credit funds for individuals fell to an average of only 6.22%. This diminution was part of a trend that had been going on for some years.
Even worse, Goldman Sachs says that about 15% of borrowers are no longer making enough money to pay all of their interest payments. The rising frequency of payment-in-kind (PIK) schemes, in which borrowers put off cash interest payments by raising their total debt, is a clear symptom of financial trouble.
Institutional investors are slowly leaving the market
Even while marketing stories keep saying that private lending is strong, smart institutional investors are discreetly leaving the industry. Private BDCs have seen their net assets go down for five quarters in a row. This implies that new inflows are no longer compensating for redemptions and value changes.
If current redemption rates remain unchanged, non-traded BDCs stand to lose nearly EUR 42.94 billion annually. This is why big companies like Blue Owl have done things that have never been done before, like letting investors take out up to 17% of net assets worth around EUR 653.63 million—much more than usual liquidity requirements.
It’s clear that industry experts are departing before conditions deteriorate significantly.
Why evergreen funds aren’t as safe as they seem
The marketing brochures for evergreen private credit funds generally stress how flexible and easy they are to get, yet there are big hazards buried behind this appealing packaging. Many people don’t understand the basic limits of these types of investments until the market gets worse.
No set end date or promise of liquidity
Evergreen funds don’t have set expiration dates like regular private equity funds do. This advantage means that, in theory, investors can continue to be involved forever. But this structure that lasts forever gives the wrong impression of liquidity. In truth, the underlying assets, which are usually loans to middle-market companies or complicated structured credit, are still quite illiquid, no matter what kind of fund structure is surrounding them.
Because there are no maturity dates, investors have to trust fund management to decide when to sell. During times of market stress, this discretion typically works against individual investors since managers put fund stability ahead of meeting redemption demands.
Quarterly limits on redemptions and rights to suspend
Most private credit evergreen funds restrict redemptions to 5% of their net assets per quarter. Many investors don’t realise this until they need cash. Also, all of these funds have the authority to stop redemptions entirely under “extraordinary circumstances”, which is a purposefully ambiguous term that provides management with a lot of freedom.
The fine print usually lets managers build up redemption queues, make side pockets for assets that aren’t doing well, or put up gates when withdrawal requests go beyond certain limits. These mechanisms do a fantastic job of moving liquidity risk from fund managers back to investors at the exact time when liquidity is most beneficial.
Prices based on models, not the market
The way that evergreen funds value their holdings is probably the most worrisome thing. Managers use proprietary valuation models instead of actual transaction pricing because there aren’t any active trading marketplaces for private loans. These models have subjective inputs and assumptions that can make bad credit look good.
The valuation method creates negative incentives—managers want steady NAVs that prevent redemptions from happening and management fees from coming in. Because of this, private credit valuations usually don’t change as much as similar public markets. Such behaviour makes it seem like the market is stable, but this image goes away when real market-clearing prices come up.
This difference between stated valuations and the real economy is why smart institutional investors have already started to quietly leave the private credit party. This leaves less knowledgeable investors with assets that are becoming more of a concern.
Growth of systemic risk occurs even in the absence of any party engaging in cheating or fraud
The private credit situation is especially worrying since systemic risk can build up without any one party having to commit fraud or deception. The entire ecosystem operates through perfectly legal mechanisms that nevertheless create dangerous vulnerabilities.
Incentives are in place to keep the machine going
The way private credit funds charge fees makes it easy for them to collect assets, no matter how well they do. Most funds charge 1–2% in management fees and about 15% of profits after returns go above a certain level, which is usually about 6%. With interest rates over 5% now, getting over this obstacle doesn’t take much expertise because private loans have adjustable rates that can go over 10% when spreads are taken into account.
In short, fund managers get big bonuses for performance even when they don’t do a great job. This gives people a strong reason to keep the private credit engine running even as the fundamentals get worse.
Risk was transferred down the line to regular investors
Initially, smart institutional investors dominated the private credit market. But these days, company development companies, interval funds, and private credit ETFs are making it more likely that less experienced retail investors will lose money.
The “democratisation” of private lending puts investors at risk by making it easier for them to buy complicated, illiquid assets that they may not completely understand. As Moody’s analysts pointed out, the independence that retail-focused instruments offer comes with dangers that are akin to bank runs, especially “misalignment between liquidity terms and investor expectations”.
The wrong idea: private markets always do better
The generally held belief that private markets are better than public ones is what makes private credit grow. However, we must closely examine this assumption.
Studies of identical private equity investments demonstrate that buyout funds did roughly 3.8% better than public market indexes that were the same each year. Venture capital, on the other hand, only did 2.0% better. So, these premiums might not be enough to cover the extra risks, which include illiquidity, lack of transparency, increased leverage, and possible systemic effects.
The smarter way that most investors don’t see
Private credit markets are having more and more problems, while a different way of investing has quietly produced great rewards with much less trouble.
The case study of Nevada PERS illustrates basic investment principles
The Public Employees’ Retirement System (PERS) in Nevada is a wonderful example of how to handle a pension fund well. The Public Employees’ Retirement System (PERS) in Nevada primarily relies on index-orientated management, fully investing 88.2% of its portfolio in the appropriate indices. PERS has the finest investment strategy among Americans because of this plan. government retirement plans.
The findings say a lot. PERS made EUR 6.58 billion in investment income in fiscal year 2024, with a 12.1% time-weighted return (gross of fees). Even more impressive, PERS has done better than its benchmark level in five of the last few years, with a 68.9% total reference point (9.1% compounded annually).
Why low-cost index funds do better over time
The research repeatedly shows why index funds do better than active management. Morningstar’s analysis shows that almost 95% of actively managed funds do worse than their benchmarks over a 20-year period. In the same way, 86% of large-cap blend funds similar to the S&P 500 performed worse over a five-year period.
This result isn’t surprising because the average individual stock does worse than its index by 54%. In fact, around 66% of individual stocks return less than their benchmark index, and 40% of them lose money.
Staying away from fees, gates, and unclear appraisals
Index funds are intriguing since they don’t have redemption barriers, value problems, or hefty charges. Investors gain directly from their low expense ratios. Even a 1–2% difference in fees can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars wasted over decades. Index funds also give you rapid liquidity without any limits on how much you can withdraw each quarter or the right to stop withdrawals.
The Nevada PERS method unequivocally validates this claim by maintaining extremely low costs, both in terms of basis points and dollars, for a fund of its size. What do they know? They keep a 100% index in public markets and only invest in treasuries in their bond portfolio.
Final Thoughts
As we’ve seen in this article, the private credit bubble is clearly under a lot of stress. Billions of dollars in redemptions, returns that are progressively going down, and the silent departure of institutional investors all point to a major correction that is already happening. There doesn’t need to be any fraud or deception for this market shift to happen. It’s just the result of incentives not being aligned, risk being passed on to retail investors, and the wrong idea that private markets always do better than public ones.
Even though the industry markets them, evergreen funds have many hidden dangers. Their lack of specified end dates, quarterly redemption caps, and model-based valuations give the impression of stability, but this illusion disappears just when investors need cash the most. So, everybody who now has private credit should carefully think about their positions again before the redemption queues get longer.
The Nevada PERS study shows that there is a new and better option. Their straightforward approach using low-cost index funds has delivered exceptional results without the complexity, opacity, and liquidity constraints inherent in private credit investments. Most importantly, this plan stays away from the gates, unclear valuations, and high fees that are common in private market funds.
Future projections indicate a decline in private credit performance as market realities align with model-based valuations. What is the best thing for most investors to do right now? Think about following Nevada’s lead and using simpler, more open investment instruments that don’t guarantee huge returns but do give steady ones without the risks that come with them. In the end, the most complicated way to invest is typically the simplest one.
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